Superbowl XLI Preview

Indianapolis Colts versus the Chicago Bears, Sunday 4th February

The NFL season ends this weekend with the Superbowl in Miami, a massive spectacle watched by billions worldwide and accompanied by razzamatazz galore.

Contesting the event are the AFC Champions the Indianapolis Colts and the NFC winners the Chicago Bears. Whilst the Bears have had the best record in their conference all season long the Indianapolis Colts have recovered from a mid-season blip to return to form in the play-offs and beat the more fancied Ravens and Patriots as underdogs on their way to Miami.

Last weekend the Colts proved their pedigree with a close-fought victory over the Patriots, no mean feat in the play-offs and the Bears comfortably beat the Saints, who nevertheless had a terrific season out of nowhere.

Amidst the hype, accentuated this year by having not one but two African American coaches for a Superbowl team, there is a clash of styles between the two teams. Chicago are a defensive team first and foremost, with several drafts dedicated to that side of the ball, with a questionable offense led by much maligned quarterback Rex Grossman. Indianapolis are all flair, led by an NFL superstar in Peyton Manning, surrounded by the likes of star receiver Marvin Harrison. However the defense has been leaky all season, particularly against the run. That said in the play-offs this unit has performed way above expectations.

Recent history suggests that the NFC teams have it all to do in the Superbowl as AFC teams have won seven of the last eight events. To my mind that is likely to continue this year. An anaemic Bears offense, with the advantage of harsh Chicago weather taken away from them in keeping games low scoring, goes up against an improved defense. On offense, the creative Manning should have opportunities to score points.

The oddsmakers price up the Colts as 4/11 favourites for this match up. Not an attractive proposition. However it being the Superbowl there are a range of betting markets on offer from the sublime (who will score the last touchdown?) to the ridiculous (who will win the toss?!) and two strike appeal.

The first is the Even money on offer for Indianapolis to cover a seven point spread (i e win by more than seven points) which looks interesting. The Colts if they turn it on offensively are perfectly likely to win going away. Secondly Even money is on offer that the Bears score under 21 points. With the Bears having a questionable quarterback and the Colts stopping the run better, that has to be a strong possibility too

Selections

Indianapolis to win at Evens – 7 points at Ladbrokes
Chicago to score under 21 points at Evens at Ladbrokes

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