NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

After the seventeen week regular season this weekend brings the start of the Play offs with the four match wild card weekend where the two lowest seeded divisional winners in each conference play the, in effect, two best runners up.

In the last week of the regular season the New York Giants secured the last spot in the NFC Play-Offs with a victory over the Redskins whilst the far tighter race in the AFC was resolved surprisingly when the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Jaguars in a 35-30 shoot out and then both the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals, who would have beaten the Chiefs out with a win, both lost in overtime to teams with worse records.

So, onto the play offs. Seedings are historically important in picking winners here. Indeed 80% of all Superbowl winners in history were seeded 1 or 2 in their conference and the Pittsburgh Steelers were a rarity last year in winning all three divisional games away from home before winning the Superbowl. Whys being in the top two seeds important? Firstly they get a "bye" week of rest whilst the lower seeds play and then they have home field advantage versus those teams. A big advantage accrues.

The bye teams this year are the Chicago Bears and the New Orlean Saints in the NFC and the San Diego Chargers/Baltimore Ravens in the AFC. This column has previously advised the Saints and the Chargers at higher prices and I remain comfortable with those selections for those looking for a Superbowl winner at this juncture.

Here is a look at each of the four Wild card games:

1.Seattle Seahawks versus the Dallas Cowboys (winner goes to Chicago)

The Cowboys enter the play offs on the back of a whimper with two defeats including the crucial one at home to the Eagles. They have a crucial weakness in their pass defense that is being exposed and is likely to prevent them going all the way. However the draw is kind to them. Seatttle's major strength is the running game with former league MVP Shaun Alexander and a pedestrian receiving corps. Dallas is very stout against the run and is talented on offense. If Dallas win Chicago's offense has the same constitution as Seattle's.

I like the underdog Cowboys here, the Seahawks are no great shakes and Dallas' big time players will be fired up for this

Selection: Dallas Cowboys to win at 13/10 (Expekt.com)

2.Philadelphia Eagles versus the New York Giants (winner goes to New Orleans)

The Eagles are on form, tough to beat at home and hosting the temperamental, disjointed and injury hit Giants. I confidently expect the Eagles to win this as I expect their defense to stifle and blitz the Giants who have not fired on offense for some time

Selection: Philadelphia Eagles to win at 4/11 with Ladbrokes

3.Indianapolis Colts versus the Kansas City Chiefs (winner goes to Baltimore)

The Chiefs have a squeak in this because of the strength of their running game and the Colts being the worst run defense in the league. Unfortunately though the turbo-charged Colts offense will have a field day against the Chiefs too. Expect a high scoring shoot-out, firms are pricing up total points above 50 for this, against league averages of 35 or so. I suppose I go with the Colts, but won't be having a wager personally.

Selection: None. Indianapolis Colts if pressed.

4.New England Patriots versus the New York Jets (winner goes to San Diego)

This will be a tight one and the Jets are over-priced at nearly 4/1 for value seekers. The Jets won in New England in a surprise result earlier this season and under rookie head coach Eric Mangini are re-tooling to be a force for many years to come. At this particular point though it is a touch too early to expect the Jets to progress deep into the Play-Offs and I expect the Patriots to grind out a win with the tactical nuances of head coach Bill Belichek throwing the Jets some surprises.

Selection: New England to win at 3/11 with Pinnacle

Current Superbowl Odds (Pinnacle, Expekt.com)

San Diego Chargers 13/5
Baltimore Ravens 5/1
Chicago Bears 11/2
New England Patriots 10/1
New Orleans Saints 10/1

Of these the Saints each way at 10/1 (1/4 the odds 1,2) remain excellent value.

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