Betting Preview: NFL Championship Games

So we reach the two Conference Championship games that will determine the two participants in the Superbowl at the end of the month. Last weekend's games threw up two expected results in the NFC though both games were far closer than might have been expected. The Chicago Bears needed overtime to beat the Seahawks and the New Orleans Saints squeaked past the Eagles by three points. In the AFC though, both games went to the underdogs. Albeit they were two very talented underdog teams! The Indianapolis Colts stifled the lacklustre Ravens to win and in San Diego the New England Patriots shocked the Chargers.

So, on to this weekend's games. Firstly the NFC game where New Orleans travel to Chicago. In harsh weather and with home advantage the Chicago Bears are undoubtedly favourites but I have been with the Saints for weeks. They are superbly coached with a potent offense and somehow a feeling persists that post Hurricane Katrina and the near collapse of the franchise that destiny is on their side. The Bears, particularly on defense, are strong opponents but their offense does not appear strong enough to me to win a Superbowl. Of course the defense may carry them there first but particularly at quarterback, where Rex Grossman is inconsistent and unpredictable, there always feels to me a mistake is waiting to happen. The best odds are as follows:

Chicago Bears 4/5 (Expekt.com)
New Orleans Saints 6/5 (BetDirect)

This is about right. It should be a close game. I am going with the Saints at odds against with just that bit more big play ability to pull out in a close one.

Secondly the AFC game sees the New England Patriots travel to the Indianapolis Colts for the latest in a series of play-off games between two marquee franchises over the past few years. This is a really tough one to call as both are here this year somewhat against the odds. The Colts have struggled on defense all season but have been transformed in the play-offs. The Patriots spluttered through the regular season but big game players and a big time coach have turned it on in the play-offs. Generally Tom Brady and team have got the better of Peyton Manning and team in recent years with that slight edge brought about by superior coaching and tactics. The best odds are as follows:

Indianapolis Colts 8/13 (betfred)
New England Patriots 6/4 (Pinnacle)

I will be on the Patriots at odds against in a game as tight to call as this.


Let's look at the updated Superbowl odds:


Indianapolis Colts 13/8 (William Hill)
New England Patriots 5/2 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Bears 4.3-1 (Pinnacle)
New Orleans Saints 4.9-1 (Pinnacle)

The first point to note is that both AFC teams are favoured over the NFC teams. Automatically therefore the odds value must be in the NFC. I will continue to say that the Saints are the best value. Not the worst of the four remaining teams by a long shot and still backable each-way.

Ed note: Make all your NFL bets at Pinnacle Sports

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