FA Cup 2007: Round 3 Giant-Killing Potential

For those of us growing up in the pre-Premiership era of British football, the first weekend in January was traditionally the day we all looked forward to whichever team we supported. This was and hopefully always will be the day of the third round of the FA Cup!

This is the weekend when the tiniest of non-professional football clubs might be drawn to play against the mightiest footballing powers at the top, with eleven men against eleven over ninety minutes, and appear on TV to boot! The value of such a meeting in a competitive professional scenario is what casts the magic dust over this tournament as well as its grand history stretching back over 100 years. Even many of the young, foreign players who have proliferated throughout the Premiership refer to their own memories of seeing English FA Cup matches on TV in their homelands during their childhood. The FA Cup seems to have worldwide status.

This is why it is saddening that managers of clubs in the Barclays Premiership, and even the Coca Cola Championship, insist on relegating the FA Cup to a secondary status by resting their best starting elevens even at the risk of elimination. Certain managers all but admit that being knocked out would ease the burden, especially those with European commitments. For other teams that fear relegation out of the Premiership or are fighting to gain promotion to it, there is one over-riding motive – money!

The FA Cup may be romantic, historical and brimming with status but it does not guarantee a club an annual income north of £20,000,000. The sheer bulk of the financial benefit of playing in the Premiership has stampeded roughshod over the lovingly-maintained antique that is the FA Cup competition.

From a pure betting perspective, this tendency of bigger clubs to field weakened teams in the earlier rounds can throw up some value if bookmakers are pricing a game's odds on reputation only.

The FA Cup third round of Season 2006/07 throws up a list of matches comprising 64 teams, including 42 from the Premiership and Championship that start their journeys here. The remaining 22 have fought their way to a potential pay-day and glory through Rounds 2 and 1. For a lucky handful of non-league teams, the trek originated even further back during the Preliminary Rounds.

Of the 32 ties, no less than 14 comprise matches between teams with at least two league divisions separating the sides. The potential for an upset or merely a total mis-match is therefore high. The third round always delivers some surprises and these particular games are all being played on Saturday in the traditional 3.00pm slot with the exception of one, as follows:

Barnet v Colchester United
Blackpool v Aldershot Town
Chelsea v Macclesfield Town
Chester v Ipswich Town
Crystal Palace v Swindon Town
Derby County v Wrexham
Doncaster Rovers v Bolton Wanderers
Nottingham Forest v Charlton Athletic
Peterborough United v Plymouth Argyle
Sheffield United v Swansea City
Tamworth v Norwich City (12.30, Live on BBC1)
Torquay United v Southampton
Watford v Stockport County
West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion

Looking down this list, I immediately look for the higher-placed teams that are struggling for form in their own divisions for the prospect of upsets or good value draws.

The first example is perhaps Swindon at Crystal Palace. The Eagles are stuttering in the Championship while Swindon are motoring decently in League Two. You can get around 5/1 on a Swindon win but the 11/4 on offer at Bet365 for the draw looks worth having.

Doncaster kick off their match in their brand new stadium at Keepmoat but that may be their downfall. Premiership Bolton will surely prefer the smooth turf there to the cloying stuff at the old Belle Vue they have just left. Still, Doncaster might be up for it with a good win behind them in the league. Bet365 offer 11/4 for the draw.

Then there is Charlton away at Nottingham Forest, as clear an example of upset potential that you will meet - at least on paper. The Addicks are in turmoil while Forest are going well in their league albeit with recent signs of wobbling. Charlton's salvation may be the experience suffered by their new manager, Alan Pardew, when he took West Ham to Chesterfield earlier this season in the Carling Cup and suffered an embarrassing defeat. A repeat of that may not be on his agenda. Nonetheless, 2/1 is widely available (Ladbrokes, VC Bet, Bet365) for a Forest win at home. That looks far better value than 13/10 for Charlton at Bet365. The 9/4 on the draw (Bet365, VC Bet) is a good alternative if you feel Charlton will have enough to earn a replay.

The BBC cameras have decamped to non-league Tamworth looking for a public humiliation of Championship side Norwich. Tamworth had an excellent run last
Year before bowing out on penalties after a replay against Championship side Stoke City. Yes, Norwich are struggling to get consistent performances in the league but Tamworth are doing even worse in the Conference, and find themselves second from bottom fighting relegation. However, the third round is the proverbial "cup final" for Tamworth so if they have the will, they could give the Canaries a fright. Blue Square go 6/1 a shock win while Bet365 offer 8/15 on the Championship team prevailing. While this is the likely outcome, it is also easy to accept that Tamworth could force a replay. At 3/1 at Ladbrokes, a small tickle is justified.

Stockport have an impressive home record in League Two but sadly for them they have been drawn away to play Premiership strugglers Watford. Away from home, Stockport have not been getting the results and Watford's physical style will probably be enough to outfight the lower league team.

The final potential for a slip-up in this bracket is West Ham, although being at Upton Park should not be half the problem against League One Brighton as it would be at an unwelcoming stadium exposed to the elements like the Withdean. The Hammers have been roundly slated for their surrender at Reading in a 6-0 beating on New Year's Day and many of their players may be anxious about having their noses rubbed in it by a team like Brighton. The players will have to banish such thoughts as Brighton will no doubt give their all here. Albion are not in good form so a typical "Cup Performance" will have to be dug out. A Brighton win is a long 15/2 at MANSION and the same firm is offering close to 4/1 on the draw. West Ham will probably play new signing Luis Boa Morte to add some quality to a side lacking direction.

All told, we can all sit back and enjoy the thrills and spills of Third Round Day!

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