World Cup Thoughts

Once more, another four years of waiting starts! Already a small part of the committed football (soccer) fan is looking forward to South Africa 2010.

Not so fast! I do not wish to contemplate being another four years older – not just yet. In any case, there are four seasons of exciting domestic and European football to savour before then, at least from where I stand in the UK. So maybe this is a good time to reflect on the World Cup and consider whether there is anything to take forward to help with future betting opportunities.

Who would have bet on the Italians winning it? Some shrewd punters I am sure, as Italy can never be discounted in any World Cup. Like Germany, it is a nation that seems to have the necessary nous and disciplined approach to negotiate the tricky early knockout stages. The track record of both nations in the last 30 years is clear testament to that.

Jurgan Klinsmann seemed to fire up his hitherto unregarded group of players into an effective and attack-minded unit that pleased and surprised the home nation's supporters. I wonder whether some of the helter-skelter of his years as a player in the English Premiership had any bearing on his approach to coaching the usually staid Germans. Either way, Klinsmann can regard the job well done despite the narrow defeat in the semi-final. If Klinsmann stays on, the German's will likely be short odds for the European Championships in 2008.

Who knows how Italy will fare by then? The unravelling of the domestic scandals could have a lasting impact on the top of their domestic game. But then again, who can tell with Italian politics? That is one to keep an eye on.

France will be a totally new prospect by 2008; so many of this year's finalists will be out to pasture enjoying their retirements. The French might not reach another final for a few years but they can look back at the Germany World Cup finals with pride – with the odd disciplinary exception.

Brazil and Argentina will always be a threat with their conveyor belts of young players constantly emerging from vast, football-mad populations. I would argue that Argentina played the most exciting football when they were free to do so; the clashes with Serbia & Montenegro and Mexico being highlights. They will be a threat in 2010. Brazil in contrast did not live up to the hype and maybe Brazil's traditionally cramped odds should be laid on the betting exchanges next time.

Could Argentina be assuming the mantle of most consistent South American footballing nation? Brazil seem to be living a little on the reputation forged way back in Pele's days, especially the sublime 1970 team, and perhaps also the Socrates era in the early 1980's.

Those were days when World Cups were won in a decisive manner. These days, too many teams are either overly cautious or simply well-drilled defensively. The number of games going to penalties, and especially the final itself, detracts a little from the grave importance of it all. After all that effort, and it comes down to a game of penalties! Surely someone can devise a means of separating teams by reference to goals scored or wins in the earlier group and knockout games? It cannot be that difficult and would encourage at least one team to go for the win.

I have avoided talking about England, for good reason. The team fell appallingly short of the standards set by possibly the majority of the teams at the tournament. Yet, were it not for errant penalties against Portugal, England would have been semi-finalists. Poor management is widely blamed but the players, so attuned to the frantic play of the Premiership, seem unable to make the necessary transition to break down well-drilled defences of even the minor nations.

I wait with interest to see whether Steve McLaren starts his tenure by hoisting an entirely re-conditioned engine into the vehicle or merely attempts to tweak the existing misfiring components. As Sven Goran Eriksson's erstwhile deputy, McLaren might be tempted to forge some distance from Eriksson and plump for the former approach. The suggestion that he wants Terry Venables in to help hints that a more adventurous tack is in his mind. I hope so.

Overall then, the World Cup was not one of the classics. This was borne out by the fact that good money could have been won betting the "unders" market; that is usually the market for "less than 2.5 goals" in 90 minutes. With an in-running market, it was not difficult to clear a safe profit in many of the knockout phase matches, many getting to half-time goalless. Let's hope for more adventure and excitement next time.

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