Wimbledon Tennis Men's Singles Ready to Roll

So, before we know it, we are down to the Men's Singles Semi-finals at Wimbledon!

There was a greater chance of Hell freezing over than contemplating the semis without Roger Federer present and correct! Federer now faces a very unlikely opponent in Jonas Bjorkman from Sweden, a tennis "veteran" at 34 and unseeded at this tournament. Bjorkman is no mug as a top 60 world ranking testifies but he is usually playing solely doubles at this stage of Wimbledon. It is still possible that Hell might freeze over but it is difficult to see any other result but a straight sets win for Federer. Bjorkman has all but conceded this already as he told Wimbledon's official website:

"Obviously it's going to be tough, but what can I say? It's a dream come true to have the opportunity to play a Wimbledon semi-final against the best player in the world right now – probably going to be the best player ever. I [will] just try to do the best out of it and have a lot of fun out there."

The bookies are taking no chances at all. Absolutely none! Bet365 quote Federer at 1/200 to win the match. Untouchable odds you may say but 1/11 (1.09) for the straight sets win is almost palatable. If you have a spare lump that you won't miss, it is probably better to take those odds than putting it in a building society. The dangers are firstly that Federer might not be as ruthless as he ought to be. Given that he has yet to drop a set this Wimbledon, it seems likely he has a goal of winning the whole tournament that way so I do not foresee complacency from Federer. The other danger is injury. Well, he seems fit at present and, as a punter, you have to accept that risk as an occupational hazard.

Overall, very little value is available but I have to say that the 4/5 available for Federer to win his match by at least 9 games has some appeal. On the straight sets assumption, this requires something along the lines of 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. I would not be surprised to see a couple of 6-1 sets in the mix.

In a similar vein, you can get 4/7 (1.57) that the game will end in 29 games or less. On the exchanges at Betfair, there is a market for under or over 30.5 games. There is not much action there but you can (at the time of writing) back at 1.37 (3/8) for the unders. These bets are essentially a punt that the game will end in three sets with Federer not being taken to 7-5 or 7-6 in any set. The odds on Bet365 look much better for the sake of a single game, but that does mean 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 would only win on Betfair! The choice is yours.

In the other semi-final, we have a more even match in theory. Number two seed and clay court specialist, Rafael Nadal, has so far passed the grass test with flying colours and comes up against another unexpected opponent, Marcos Baghdatis from Greece. However, "unexpected" does not mean undeserving. Baghdatis showed in the Australian Open that he has a game to match the baseliners and even took a set off Federer in that final.

Although he suffered a dip in form after that January tournament - perhaps due to the sudden glare of the limelight affecting his focus, but also some niggling injuries – Baghdatis has been gaining confidence at Wimbledon. When he faced Andy Murray, I highlighted the generosity of Bet365 in offering 6/4 on Baghdatis and since then he has gone on to outwit Lleyton Hewitt in the quarter final so must now offer a genuine threat to Nadal. The latter is of course a very fit young man at the top of his clay game, and it would appear that his skill and fitness is overcoming whatever demons he faces when playing on grass.

Neither of these players have grass pedigree so that factor can perhaps be ruled out when considering who to back. Nadal may well have the edge but the odds of 2/5 (1.4) are not very tempting. What is tempting at Bet365 are the odds of 11/8 (2.37) on Nadal to win by 6 games or more. This is by no means a foregone conclusion but in my view a better value bet if you are a Nadal supporter than the straight match odds available.

For those confident of a Nadal win in straight sets, Ladbrokes are offering a combination bet of Federer/Nadal both to win in straight sets at a very tempting 11/4 (3.75).

It looks likely that Baghdatis has reached his stopping off point but if so he can be very pleased with a Grand Slam final and semi-final in the same year. There is sure to be more dancing and celebrating back in Cyprus!

Ed note: At Bet365, the betting choices are wide and there's a 15% deposit bonus for new players!

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