Barclays Premiership – First Impressions

It doesn't get underway until 19th August - and we are still watching the FIFA World Cup reach its conclusion - but the annual summer anticipation and excitement in the hearts of all soccer fans has begun in earnest with the release of the Barclays Premiership fixtures schedule for the 2006/07 season.

The bookmakers have moved quickly to install Chelsea, the winners in the last two seasons, at prohibitive odds of 1/2 (1.5) to retain the title again.

There is no doubting that the acquisitions of leading world players Michael Ballack of Germany and Andriy Shevchenko of Ukraine have added further reinforcement to the already heavily armoured battle troops of Chelsea and given the layers all the excuses they need to price the Champions so short. The question remains whether Jose Mourinho can immediately meld the array of new and existing talent into a functioning unit without a clash of egos upsetting the balance.

Last season, the three likely main challengers, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool, all could be said to have finished the season as improved forces. The Red Devils and The Reds finished in arguably greater form than Chelsea while most observers consider that Arsene Wenger will see a vast improvement in his own team's consistency now that they have bedded down as a unit following a year of change in personnel and a move to a bigger stadium. The European Champions League experience should also have yielded some valuable hard experience for their younger players.

The consensus odds for the outright Championship with best price in italics are:

Chelsea – 1/2 (1.5) – [best 8/15 (1.53) – totesport]
Manchester Utd – 5/1 (6.0) – [best 6/1 (7.0) – William Hill, Coral, Premier Bet]
Liverpool – 13/2 (7.5) - [best 8/1 (9.0) – Coral, Premier Bet]
Arsenal – 7/1 (8.0) - [best 8/1 (9.0) – Betdirect, Premier Bet]

All other teams are 50/1 or longer.

At the foot of the relegation betting is the predictable sight of the three newcomers promoted from the Coca Cola Championship. Two of these, Sheffield United and Watford, have been installed at strong odds-on to return swiftly to the lower echelons while the Championship winners, Reading, due to the emphatic nature of their campaign last season, are at least afforded the dignity of an odds-against quote.

The shortest three quotes for relegation are:

Watford – 1/2 (1.5) – [best 4/7 (1.57) – totalbet, UKBetting]
Sheffield Utd – large variations from a widely available 4/6 (1.67) to 1/2 (1.5)
Reading – 5/4 (2.25) and 11/8 (2.38) in equal measures.

Beyond that there is a tight gaggle of clubs all of which are quoted in the region of 5/2 (3.5) to 9/2 (5.5). These are Charlton, Wigan, Portsmouth, Fulham and Aston Villa, with different bookmakers having mixed opinions about which of these is the more likely candidate to struggle.

As always with opening quotes, safety first prevails until some kind of betting pattern emerges. There is a great deal of value in certain long term market spreads especially in the Championship, something I will focus on in another article soon. It is likely the case too that some teams priced safely for mid-table on reputation alone will struggle in practice. There will be some value further up the league selling the quotes of teams such as Everton, Middlesbrough, Bolton and Newcastle for example. The question as always is which of these teams will under-perform?

With over a month to go before kick-off, there is little point highlighting specific situations. So much can change for a team with one or two shrewd signings in July and August during the summer transfer window. Keeping a close eye on proceedings may well pay off.

Ed note: Bet365 offers a wide selection of betting on its sportsbook and a £250 Deposit Match Bonus!

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