Can Murray Make a Mint?

British tennis players perennially fail to make the necessary grade at the top of world tennis; however as coaching becomes more global and less dependent on an antiquated committee-run system, might that change soon?

Andrew Murray, a man who wears both his heart and his Scottish roots on his sleeve – or his wristbands – is giving every indication that he has the inner resources to crack through the glass ceiling.

His scintillating Wimbledon victory over third seed Andy Roddick in straight sets saw him demonstrate a powerful array of shot-making and the emotional histrionics that help drive many of the top players at vital moments in a match. It also sent a loud and unambiguous warning out to the rest of the field that Andy Murray is not just here to give the partisan crowds a reason to perform the Mexican wave.

So, what odds Andy Murray for Wimbledon?

To win the event outright, he appears to be at long odds if only because everyone else is, unless your name happens to be Roger Federer. The latter is seemingly untouchable on grass so the bookies are almost certainly doing brisker trade on the "w/o Federer" slate if they are bothering at all.

The Mens Singles win market top five currently looks like this on Bet365:

Roger Federer – 2/9 (1.22)
Lleyton Hewitt – 7/1 (8.0)
Rafael Nadal – 15/2 (8.5)
Andrew Murray – 14/1 (15.0)
Mario Ancic – 14/1 (15.0)

The rest of the field are 50/1 or longer so have been virtually discounted.

The odds suggest a five-horse race, or more accurately, a four horse race for runners-up. If you are wholly convinced about Federer, then you will presumably take the "free money" on offer at a 22% return. Perhaps many have already at Bet365 as most bookies are quoting 1/4 (1.25). If not, then consider who might prevail. Of these foes, Federer will meet Ancic in the quarter final if form is maintained. In the other draw, Murray would meet Hewitt in the quarters. This suggests a fair chance of a run for Nadal to the semi finals, as he has the unseeded Irakli Labadze to play followed by either Dmitry Tursunov or Jarkko Nieminen (the number 22 or 27 seeds respectively). Then he will meet either Murray or Hewitt assuming they both progress to the quarters.

The odds on all four would plummet in the event of a Federer defeat but assuming Federer does make the final, what hope for Murray?

The first consolation is he won't meet Federer before the final but with the hurdles of both Hewitt and then Nadal to consider (assuming he beats Marcos Baghdatis first!) before even contemplating beating Federer, the odds of 14/1 on an outright win for Murray – a relative "novice" at 19 years of age let's not forget - seems restrictive to say the least and are probably driven by home country sentiment in the aftermath of the Roddick win. This is amply demonstrated on the Betfair exchange where Murray can be backed for modest sums at 36.0 (35/1).

So perhaps the best policy for now is to take one match at a time. Murray versus Marcos Baghdatis is being played today (3rd July). On Mansion Sportsbook, Murray is quoted at 1.58 (4/7), slightly more attractive than the 1/2 (1.5) to win by Bet365. However, maybe the better bet here is the handicap odds of 10/11 at Bet365 where Murray needs to score 5 games more than Baghdatis during the match. If Murray gets on a roll as he did against Roddick, he might be expected to win by 3 sets to 1 which could be enough to win the handicap bet. But is it that simple?

We should not forget that Baghdatis was an unseeded finalist at the Australian Open earlier in the year and took the first set against Federer having already disposed of Roddick, Ljubicic and Nalbandian on the way. The man can play a bit when he puts his mind to it and who's to say he won't catch the big match bug again? Indeed, will Andy Murray recapture the Roddick heights for another game? Baghdatis is seeded 18 for a reason which suggests he should not be such a long price as 6/4 despite the grass surface.

Overall, as a Brit, I will sit back and watch Murray rather than back him at the odds on offer. Even if he bows out soon this year, we can expect a lot more over the next few years, perhaps even a Grand Slam title.

Ed note: Mansion Sportsbook offers top American and World sports betting and Sportsbook members can take a $525/£300 casino bonus too.

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