NFL Week 17 Betting Preview

The last weekend of 2006 brings us the last weekend of the NFL regular season and the final few issues surrounding the composition of the play offs will be resolved by Sunday night. After last week the main issues to be resolved are one remaining wild card spot in the NFC and both spots in the AFC. The key games in this process are described below as in theory as many as twelve teams still have a change of securing these final few spots, a testament to the parity present within this league in 2006.

This column is on a great run with 8 winning selections out of the last 8 choices, formed mainly on choosing teams battling for these places playing "also-rans" away from home, thus giving them the odds against prices that I look for. In this final week the key games are:

In the NFC:

a)The Philadelphia Eagles at home to the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles are leading the NFC East after a convincing victory against the Cowboys on Christmas day and win the division and tie up the third seed spot with a win on Sunday. The inconsistent Falcons can secure a wild card spot with a win and a Giants loss. The Eagles to win this, but unbackable at 1/3.

b)The New York Giants visit the Washington Redskins. The Giants were pummelled by the Saints over Christmas and need to win this to get the final wild card spot. In fact a loss could still get them into post-season with a poor 7-9 record if other teams lose. Against the Saints the Giants showed all their failings: poor team spirit, ill-discipline and mental errors. There are fortunate to be playing the Redskins, the only also-rans in the division. The Giants should win but I won't be backing a team that might not give me 100% if things start going badly.

In the AFC:

a)The New York Jets secure the first wild card spot with a victory to the joint worst team in the league the Oakland Raiders. The Jets are going to be a force to be reckoned with in years to come, a talented young coach, a re-tooled roster and they should win this comfortably

b)This leaves one wild card spot and the Denver Broncos are in pole position to secure it after their bizarre victory over the Bengals in the most crucial game of last weekend when the Bengals kicking unit fluffed an extra point to tie in the last minute. This weekend the Broncos play the San Francisco 49ers at the altitude of Mile High Stadium and should win a tight game against a 49ers team now eliminated from contention.

As we can see the above games do not appeal as betting propositions with three prohibitive odds on chances fighting for the play offs against poorer teams. In the other game, I think I will mentally imprint on my mind the notion that ever backing the New York Giants is akin to burning £10 notes due to their psychological frailties.

So, looking elsewhere in a quiet betting week ahead of the frenzy of the Play-Offs I merely alight on one game that suggests optimism for the bettor. This is the clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars in the mid west.

As we can see from looking at the two AFC games highlighted above both teams are struggling to make the play offs, but wither might if the Jets or Broncos slip up. The Chiefs offense is based on the star running back Larry Johnson but in this game he comes up against the formidable Jags defensive front four. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball the Jags rookie star Maurice Jones Drew will face a far easier task piling up the yards against the Chiefs defense. I expect the Jags to pull out a win here. They ran the Patriots extremely close last weekend and will be unfortunate to miss out on the play offs I think.
The Chiefs, at home are priced as favourites. The Jags, at 6/4 with Pinnacle, are decent value.

Selection

Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Kansas City Chiefs at 6/4 (Pinnacle)

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