NFL Week 15 Betting Preview

In Week 14 the play off picture continued to get a little clearer. In the NFC the Chicago Bears won thanks to a NFL record two kick off returns for touchdown in one game by rookie Devin Hester. In winning the Bears secured home field advantage throughout the play-offs. In the AFC the impressive San Diego Chargers secured their division behind the awesome record breaking running back LaDanian Tomlinson. Elsewhere the New Orleans Saints (by pummelling the Dallas Cowboys) and the Baltimore Ravens (by beating up on the Kansas City Chiefs) both went a long way to securing their divisions high seeded spots in the play-offs.

With that in mind I looked again at betting for the Ssuperbowl at the end of January. The head of the market, with best prices available, is as follows:

San Diego Chargers 3/1 (from 8/1 when previously advised)
Chicago Bears 5/1
Indianapolis Colts 8/1
Baltimore Ravens 10/1

This is all understandable. The Chargers are red hot and the Bears have the best record by far in the NFC. Meanwhile the Colts are losing form. Even though the AFC is clearly the better conference as shown above there is, in my opinion, some value at looking at who might beat the Chicago Bears to reach the Superbowl for the NFC.

The three other likely divisional winners in the NFC are as follows: Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks. The best Superbowl prices on these teams are 13/1, 20/1 and 17/1 respectively. These three teams currently represent each way value to beat the offensively challenged Bears and reach the Superbowl. Personally I'd not go for the Cowboys at that price, but like the look of the Saints and Seahawks at 4 or 5/1 a place to get to Miami and the Superbowl.

With three weeks to go of the regular season Week 15 is mostly unappetising betting fare with play off contenders playing also rans at heavy odds on. However two closer games stand out for me as worthy of attention. Firstly the New York Jets at the Minnesota Vikings. The Jets are much improved this season under new Head coach Eric Mangini and are currently scheduled for a Wild card berth in the play offs. Whilst a long shot, the patchy form of the New England Patriots in the same division, gives the Jets a shot at winning their division. The Vikings are out of the play off hunt, have a poor offense and need to rebuild further for next year. The Jets should play harder, should be tougher and are priced at 13/8 whilst the Vikings are odds-on. I think these odds should be reversed and expect the Jets to win.

Secondly the St Louis Rams showed for long periods of last Monday night's match that they could live with the Chicago Bears. The margin of the Bears victory was entirely accounted for by the two kick off returns. This weekend the Rams visit the 2-12 and hapless Oakland Raiders, with the worst offensive line in football and in Aaron Brooks the most frustrating quarterback. The Rams are priced at 6/5 for an eminently winnable game against a team going through the motions.

Selections

New York Jets to beat the Minnesota Vikings at 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
St Louis Rams to beat the Oakland Riaders at 6/5 (Bet365)

Long range Each Way Superbowl (1/4 the odds for 2nd) selections

New Orleans Saints at 20/1
Seattle Seahawks at 17/1 (both at Pinnacle)

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