Picking the Odds out of The Ashes

Where does the England cricket team go from here? After a commanding first innings performance with the bat in Adelaide, Andrew Flintoff declared at 551-6 after two days, anticipating that his troops were in with a chance of tying up the Ashes Series at 1-1. Unfortunately, the stuff of nightmares descended upon Flintoff who becomes a member of that rarified club, a captain who declared an innings and lost the match!

That is unfortunate for him as was the undisputed fact that his side were up against a supremely talented and, moreover, utterly confident Australia side. These boys never give up the chase and, with Shane Warne able to spin his magic, the rest of them filled in the cracks left by the hesitant and nervy fifth day England attack – not that England attacked much towards the end!

Now England have a job and a half to retain the Ashes, let alone win the Series. To find themselves 2-0 down after two tests, in Australia against the Australians, and hope to turn it around is the tallest of tall orders. In those circumstances, something that has never been done by England before in the Ashes, the odds are long indeed.

To win the Ashes, meaning a minimum of either one win or two draws from the remaining three test matches, Australia are quoted generally at 1/100, even 1/200 in places, but 1/66 at Bet365. No value there then!

For England, to win the Ashes means three straight wins on enemy soil with an inferior team. Retaining the Ashes requires two wins and a draw – still scant consolation. The odds quoted on the outright England win are a best 50/1 at both Ladbrokes and VC Bet. Even that seems tight but you won't generally get a better price at the moment. The odds on the almost-as-unlikely result of a tied Ashes (and an England retention) are a best 33/1 at Blue Square. Either result from this point will not be entering the minds of a single Australian right now.

There is more betting value to be had in special markets. Bet365 are unique in offering handicap odds on England avoiding defeat by a margin of 4 tests (+3.5; -3.5). In other words, if you believe England can eke out at least one win or two draws from the last three tests to keep the margin down to 4W-0D-1L or 3W-2D-0L in favour of Australia at worst in the Ashes Series, they will lay you 5/4. The Aussies are 4/7 to prevent that happening.

Other layers such as Ladbrokes have an ongoing (+1.5; -1.5) market requiring a major fightback by England. Ladbrokes quote 6/1 about England reducing the overall arrears to a one test defeat or less.

The correct score market also looks tempting. It's 2-0 now with only three to play. Can the Aussies deliver the ultimate googly and whitewash the Poms 5-0? The odds are not that long either! BetDirect are best at 2/1.

A good looking value bet is Bet365's 15/2 about a 3-1 result. That requires England to pull one out of the bag, one to be drawn and one to be won by Australia. That doesn't seem so unlikely, especially if the Aussies ease up with victory all but secured. Ladbrokes' 8/1 about a 3-0 result is equally attractive.

Ed note: Rekindle your betting fires at Bet365, where a free £100 bet basket can be yours.

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