NFL Week 9 Betting Preview

After Indianapolis' last second victory over Denver with a field goal by the best clutch kicker in the game's history, Adam Vinatieri, and Chicago's expected trouncing of the 49ers we still have two teams unbeaten going into Week 9. This is quite an achievement in this era of parity within the sport. To put it in context only one team ever has gone through a whole season unbeaten, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, and that was in an age where there was no salary cap.

I had a better week last week with a 2 out of 3 hit rate for a healthy profit and Week 9 throws up several interesting opportunities. The game of the Week is undoubtedly Indianapolis' visit to the 6-1 New England Patriots. The Patriots are on a four game winning streak and despite loss of coaches and players are defying the sceptics once again to look superbowl contenders once more. These two teams have a dramatic recent history late in the Play-Offs, usually in New England in January snowstorms! This time round another close game is in context. Bookmakers have priced up the game with the Patriots priced at odds on reflecting recent history and home advantage and those unbeaten Colts best priced at 17/12 (pinnacle) to remain unbeaten. I am not recommending a bet but would be on the outsider in a close one such as this. Odds against is a fair price for the Colts.

Elsewhere the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals catches my eye as a game that will go a long way to deciding the AFC North division. This will be another close one. The Ravens are going well, demolishing the revitalised Saints at the weekend and now have an offense to complement the usually miserly defense. The Bengals are talented too especially on offense and a good battle is in store. The Bengals are priced as high as 1.6/1 with Pinnacle sports which tempts me greatly. Two things put me off though. Baltimore at home and secondly the Bengals have been having trouble closing games out.

Instead there are two selections this week. Firstly the improving Green Bay Packers travel to the Buffalo Bills, a mercurial but ultimately disappointing team in a battle of two mid table teams. With players like running back Ahman Green returned to fitness the Packers are a threat on offense to most teams. They are priced at 1.6/1 (Pinnacle) and as such are overpriced against the Bills. The Bills have a decent but inexperienced defense that is vulnerable to the extreme savviness of the legendary Brett Favre.

Secondly the game between the Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh intrigues me. When I was researching the games before looking at price information I thought to myself "the Steelers might be interesting there if a good price". In part this was because the Colts discovered a weakness in the previously impregnable Bronco's defense by attacking the defensive backs deep and often and in theory the Steelers could do the same with the Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward combination.

However I then see that the recently unbeaten Broncos are priced at 4/3 (Pinnacle) and that Roethlisberger was intercepted four times against the poor Oakland Raiders in his last outing. He has yet to recover his form since a serious off-season head injury. Pricing the Broncos above even money against an out of form Steelers is in my opinion a mistake.

Selections

Green Bay Packers to beat the Buffalo Bills at 1.6/1 with Pinnacle
Denver Broncos to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4/3 with Pinnacle

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