NFL Week 10 Betting Preview

Last week saw one of the best week's games for a long time. In a classic the Indianapolis Colts, led by the peerless Peyton Manning, went to New England and remained unbeaten by triumphing over the Patriots 27-20. Elsewhere the Denver Broncos proved that odds against was too generous a price by comfortably beating the strangely struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, in results that not only leave you scratching your head but proving that the NFL as a betting medium is tricky, the one win Detroit Lions beat the 5-2 Atlanta Falcons going away and even more strangely the one win Miami Dolphins went to the unbeaten Chicago Bears and won by 18 points, scoring 31 against that premier defense. These two results are why I avoid very short odds selections in this league. On "any given Sunday" any team can raise their game.

Week ten is mostly rather humdrum fare with seemingly one sided contests between contenders and also-rans. However the games are elevated by two crucial NFC contests that look interesting as a betting medium and will go a long way towards establishing play off orders in that conference, as all four teams should make the post-season..

Firstly the Chicago Bears visit the New York Giants in a battle of two division topping sides. This should be a good one and the betting odds reflect that, the Giants slightly odds on and the Bears slightly odds against. Complications are rife. The Bears, judging on the evidence of a very mixed Monday night outing against the Cardinals and last weekend have offensive problems based around the inconsistent play of quarterback Rex Grossman, who is being frequently intercepted. The Giants now have their top two defensive players, Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyora, injured. In theory this should make it much more difficult for them to harass the quarterback and Grossman should have a little time to minimise his mistakes. The Giants present multiple threats on offense with Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer, but go against the tightest defense in the league.

I think there are two potential bets here. Firstly in an even contest the Chicago Bears at 11/8 are several pips above the price they would have been had this game been played a fortnight ago. With the Giants pass rush missing, I'll take a chance that Grossman can recover his composure. Secondly I expect it to be a low scoring game and "under 39 points" is widely available at 5/6. This is good value to me.

The second big game of the weekend is in the NFC West where the St Louis Rmas visit the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams have identical records and I narrowly failed to get a winning selection at a nice price earlier in the season when the Seahawks nailed a long field goal to win as time expired. Now the Seahawks have more injury problems with QB Matt Hasslebeck out.

The Seahawks at home are rightly priced as odds on favourites but these games are always mighty close and I wonder if the Seahawks many injury problems will tip the balance back towards the Rams. The Rams are consistent, far less flashy than in previous years and this makes them a more reliable betting proposition. At 7/4 I like the value on offer.

Selections

Chicago Bears to beat the New York Giants at 11/8 (Sporting Odds)
Bears/GiantsTotal Points: Under 39 at 5/6 (Pinnacle)
St Louis Rams to beat the Seattle Seahawks at 7/4 (Pinnacle)

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