ATP Tennis Masters Cup – The Final Showdown

Shanghai, China, is the venue; the Top 8 tennis players in 2006 are the competitors. For those successful eight players, this $3,700,000 finale is the lucrative culmination of a tough season of tournaments for the leading men of professional tennis! Pity the players who finished ninth and tenth albeit they will have earned well during the year!

Throughout 2006, the players have been able to accumulate compulsory points for the INDESIT ATP Race by playing the four tennis majors and the nine ATP Masters Series events. In addition, they have been able to add points from five ATP International Series matches. The difference is that the players can choose to play as many of the International Series events as they wish. There are many to choose from with sometimes three running concurrently in a given week. Out of the total played, the player counts his best five scores and adds them to the points secured from the majors and Masters Series tournaments.

The final eight scored as follows to qualify for Shanghai:

Roger Federer (Switzerland) 1,524
Rafael Nadal (Spain) 854
Nikolay Davydenko (Russia) 545
Ivan Ljubicic (Croatia) 479
Andy Roddick (USA) 463
Tommy Robredo (Spain) 455
David Nalbandian (Argentina) 439
James Blake (USA) 426

Roger Federer has been on another plane, if not planet, for the most part with only Rafael Nadal able to lay a finger on his coat-tails when meeting the Swiss champion on clay. However, Nadal has been largely anonymous since the summer and seems unlikely to challenge here. This is especially so as Nikolay Davydenko from Russia signed off the Masters Series season with a crushing final win over Dominik Hrbaty in Paris last week, and comes into Shanghai in peak form.

The eight players have been drawn into two four-player "round robin" leagues at this final event in Shanghai, as follows:

Red Group. Roger Federer; Ivan Ljubicic; Andy Roddick; David Nalbandian.

Gold Group. Rafael Nadal; Nikolay Davydenko; Tommy Robredo; James Blake.

The result of the draw is good news for Davydenko as he has avoided Federer and Ljubicic, the latter with the best indoor record this season. In contrast, Nadal has played very little in recent weeks and is away from his favoured clay surface, while Robredo and Blake have never been challenging for more than the fringe places in the top 8. That said, all of these players are capable of winning the toughest matches on their day.

In last year's Tennis Masters Cup, the final was won in thrilling fashion by Nalbandian coming back from a two-set deficit against Federer to take the match on a tie-break thus preventing Federer from securing a quick-fire hat-trick of Masters Cup victories. Nalbandian will therefore surely give that little bit extra here in an effort to defend the title. His first match? A certain Roger Federer!

Davydenko is in top indoor form as is Ljubicic while both Roddick and Blake have won separate events on the ATP tour in recent weeks. Robredo should not be ignored as he came with a flourish to take 6th spot with several high tournament finishes late in the season.

Federer can therefore expect several tough matches before attempting to regain the title. The top two in each round robin group proceed to the semi-finals.

The bookmakers' early prices are predictably tight for Federer to win outright. Bet365 offer 3/10 and Mansion Sportsbook a marginally better 34/100. The supporting cast are priced in at 10/1 for Nadal and Davydenko with 20/1 or greater widely available for the rest. Ivan Ljubicic certainly seems long at 20/1 but he is in the "group of death".

Prices are also being laid for group winners. In the Red Group, Federer is a skinny 1/6 at best, the rest 10/1 or longer. In the more competitive Gold Group, Bet365 show Nadal 13/8; Davydenko 5/4; James Blake 4/1 and Tommy Robredo 8/1.

Of the above options the value to me appears to be Davydenko to win the Gold Group at 5/4. Nadal must prove he's up to speed and will probably be more than happy qualifying in second. A much longer shot is for Ljubicic to win the Red Group. His indoor form shows he can give Federer a good run for his money and if Federer did happen to lose to Ljubicic, a second place would suffice for the Swiss Master to make the semi-final. But don't put your shirt on it!

Ed note: Plenty of tennis and top worldwide betting is available at the Mansion Sports Exchange where 0% commission applies on buy bets

• 
• 
• Email to a friend
• Print