Tennis: ATP Tournaments at Vienna, Stockholm and Moscow

In the aftermath of yet another ATP Ranking Tournament victory for Roger Federer – this time in Tokyo – with a routine win over Britain's improving Tim Henman, the ATP roadshow heads off in three different European directions this week. The good news for those competing in Vienna, Stockholm and Moscow is that Roger Federer will not be on board any of these buses!

The bad news for the competitors in Sweden is that Rafael Nadal, second behind Federer in the INDESIT ATP Race, will be competing.

Nadal has already qualified for a place at the end-of-season big money event, the INDESIT ATP Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai (at the Qi Zhong Stadium from 12th to 19th November), but several other players will be scrapping for valuable ranking points to secure that all-important top 8 place needed to qualify. Indeed, the players currently in 3rd through to 10th in the current rankings have barely a handful of points separating them, so it is all to play for.

Just to recap for those not familiar with the ATP system, every player begins the season with no points and must then accumulate them based on his performance at 18 tournaments during the year. These must be the four Grand Slams and nine ATP Masters Series events plus his five best results at other ATP tournaments, known as the International Series.

Clearly the ATP Masters events and the Grand Slams are the key as the results from these count regardless of failure in any one of them, whereas the best five results from the International Series can be picked from however many numbers of them are played during the year.

There are two remaining Masters Series tournaments remaining, Madrid and Paris. Federer's next appearance is in Madrid.

This week's events are all from the International Series "rump" of ATP qualifiers but, with vital points on offer, several of the top ten in the ATP Race are playing.

In Vienna, where the BA-CA Tennis Trophy is taking place, all eight seeds are among the Top 20 in the INDESIT ATP 2006 Race. These include Ivan Ljubicic (3rd), Andy Roddick (4th), defending Tennis Masters Cup champion David Nalbandian (8th) and Marcos Baghdatis (9th).

The point to remember for all these players is that to improve their ranking points at all, they must score more points at this tournament than they have managed in the 5th best of their previous International Series events. If they do that, the sixth worst score then drops off the board, making the net gain that much smaller. So, while the number of points separating the players is small, achieving steps up the ATP ladder means outscoring both the player's own previous best scores as well as outgunning their opponents' performances. Easier said than done.

Roddick trails Ljubicic by just two points for third place and both players will need to reach the quarter-finals in Vienna simply to improve their ranking points at all. Another example is David Nalbandian who needs 25 points to surpass seventh placed Tommy Robredo who is resting this week. Nalbandian needs to make the final to do so!

In Stockholm, Rafael Nadal is competing in an ATP event for the first time since the US Open, presumably to begin a programme of match practice for the Shanghai Finals for which he has already qualified. Nadal's only major threat here on the favouritism stakes is 6th place in the ATP Rankings USA player, James Blake. Blake comes here as defending champion of the Stockholm Open. Blake will accumulate a net 14 ATP Race points if he successfully defends his title.

In Moscow, Nikolay Davydenko will be looking to win the Kremlin Cup title and by doing so could overtake Andy Roddick in 4th place. Davydenko has past form here winning it in 2004.

The bookmakers best odds for a win at these three events this week are:

Vienna:

Andy Roddick 10/3 (4.33) (Stan James)
Ivan Ljubicic 11/2 (6.5) (Stan James)
Marcos Baghdatis 6/1 (7.0) (VC Bet)
David Nalbandian 13/2 (7.5) (VC Bet, Stan James)
Tommy Haas 9/1 (10.0) (VC Bet)
Novak Djokovic 9/1 (Bet365)
Richard Gasquet 11/1 (12.0) (VC Bet)
Fernando Gonzalez 12/1 (13.0) (Bet365)

Stockholm:

Rafael Nadal 11/8 (2.38) (Bet365, SkyBet)
James Blake 7/2 (4.5) (SkyBet)
Tomas Berdych 6/1 (7.0) (Bet365, BetFred)

Moscow:

Nikolay Davydenko11/4 (3.75) (BetFred)
Marat Safin 4/1 (5.0) (SkyBet)
Dmitry Dursunov 9/2 (5.5) (Bet365, VC Bet, SkyBet)
Mikhail Youzhny 8/1 (9.0) (BetFred, Stan James)

The best looking value may be to take James Blake to win the Stockholm Open given that Nadal is short of recent playing practice – though undoubtedly a very fit young man – and Blake needs the points to keep ahead of the chasing pack in the ATP Race whereas Nadal is already qualified. At 7/2, Blake may be worth a punt with little else in the field of note. Perhaps a trading buy on a betting exchange looking to close out at the semi-final or final stage may be a worthwhile altrnative.

Ed note: Claim a £100 Free Bet Basket at Bet365 for new customers!

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