Prime Minister's Questions – Who Will Be Next?

If the British newspapers and TV bulletins of the past year are correct, it has long been a forgone conclusion that current long-time Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, would become the next Prime Minister of Britain when Tony Blair relinquishes his post in 2007 after a ten-year stint as leader of the country. This is so, despite the barely-concealed animosity between the two (if reports are to be believed).

Yet, the bookmakers are not so convinced, believing that several other prominent Labour politicians are marshalling their troops in the background as the pressures and the glare of the spotlight increase on Gordon Brown.

Last week, British Conservative Party Leader, David Cameron, used his media time during the Conservative Conference to have a pop at the expected future successor to Blair. In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Cameron was quoted as saying:

"[Brown's] been told he needs to look more modern so he tells us he likes the Arctic Monkeys. Incredible. He's told he looks too Scottish so he tells us he likes Gazza's goal against Scotland. Utterly incredible. He's told you're plotting too much and you look like a schemer so he says Tony's always going to be my friend. Completely incredible. If you're pushed around this much before you've even applied for the job what are you going to be like as Prime Minister?"

Presumably the purpose of this attack was to attempt to destabilize the Labour Party and cast doubts upon Brown's suitability to lead the country. The odds available at the bookies perhaps, in a modest way, support this view.

Both Ladbrokes and VC Bet have Brown chalked up at 2/5 (1.4) to succeed Blair. This does not really represent the "dead cert" that the public have been programmed to expect. On the other hand, if it is a foregone conclusion in reality, then it must represent some easy money! However, the fly in the ointment is the fact that Brown and Blair have apparently never seen eye to eye. Perhaps this is a simmering pot waiting to boil over in the next few months. From an entertainment perspective, let's hope so!

So who are the other runners? The books are open on many figures from the Labour Party but there appear to be about five contenders where a discrepancy in bookmakers' odds might suggest that sizeable bets have been placed, whether it is the result of a hunch, a flyer or a sliver of insider knowledge!

Thus we have the two apparent major challengers (other than Brown), Home Secretary John Reid and Education Secretary Alan Johnson, priced at wildly varying odds. Alan Johnson is as low as 3/1 (4.0) at VC Bet yet Blue Square Betting will lay him at a long 8/1.

Meanwhile, John Reid is at a best 5/1 with both of these firms yet Stan James lays him at a narrow 3/1.

The leading players in the betting are summarised (with best prices) as follows:

Gordon Brown 2/5 (Ladbrokes, VC Bet)
John Reid 5/1 (VC Bet, Blue Square)
Alan Johnson 8/1 (Blue Square, Stan James)
David Milliband 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Sky Bet)
Hilary Benn 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Blue Square)

We look forward to seeing this battle unfold!

Ed note: Cast your votes at Blue Square Betting for great value and a free £25 bet when you open an account

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