ATP Masters: Roger Federer Returns for Madrid

After a week off following his victory in Japan, the dominant force in world tennis that is Switzerland's Roger Federer returns to play in the penultimate Masters tournament in this year's ATP Series. Federer and Rafael Nadal have already secured their places in the ATP Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai that takes place in late November but six other valuable places are up for grabs with all of them being contested fiercely by eight and more players.

Last week, three International Series events took place simultaneously in Vienna, Stockholm and Moscow. Players can use these as an opportunity to edge their ranking points along.

Ivan Ljubicic of Croatia went a long way to sealing his place in Shanghai (realistically if not mathematically) when he defended his title in Vienna, stretching his advantage over fourth placed American Andy Roddick.

Also last week, another title defence occurred in Sweden when American James Blake took the Stockholm Open for the second year running. This was our 7/2 value pick last week.

The third event in Moscow was a home affair with 5th ranked Nikolay Davydenko seeing off fellow Russian Marit Safin. Davydenko is now hot on the heels of Andy Roddick in the ATP chart.

All of these players will be fully focussed in Madrid as this event is "Masters" status meaning it is a compulsory point-scorer for the rankings. Unlike the International Series where players only score a net increase if they surpass their 5th best score from earlier International Series events, every point counts in a Masters event.

Thus, players in the lower reaches of the top ten will see this as an essential tournament in which to progress. Players such as Tommy Robredo (7th), David Nalbandian (8th), Marcos Baghdatis (9th) and Mario Ancic (10th) need every point they can to keep in with a chance of making the final top 8 for Shanghai.

James Blake in 6th and Nikolay Davydenko in 5th will also have to carry on their good form after last week's victories.

So, each of these players would immediately take a look at the draw the minute it is published in the hope they avoid Federer's quarter. For Mario Ancic and Tommy Robredo, things do not look bright for they both have the prospect of meeting Fededer at the quarter-final stage and are seeded to meet each other in the round before.

All 16 seeds receive byes to round two with four in each quarter. The seeds should meet each other in round three onwards if all goes to form. In-form James Blake (with ten wins and two titles on the spin) is due to face Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis and then, in the quarters, David Nalbandian. Clearly this is a quarter where a place in Shanghai could be made or broken.

On the other side of the draw, seeded to avoid Federer until the final, are Davydenko and Ljubicic in quarter three and Roddick and Nadal in quarter four. On current form therefore, Ivan Ljubicic looks well-placed to challenge for the final, assuming Nadal is still off the pace after his rest after the US Open in July.

The bookmakers have a win only market looking like this:

Roger Federer 4/7
Rafael Nadal 6/1
Ivan Ljubicic 10/1
Andy Roddick 20/1
James Blake 25/1
Marat Safin 40/1
David Nalbandian 40/1
Nikolay Davydenko 40/1

The best value is being offered by Blue Square Betting who lay Nadal, Ljubicic, Blake and Safin at the best odds shown above. The 25/1 about Blake looks generous while Ljubicic is a danger. Both players are at the top of their games. Nadal is more a punt on his fitness ashaving already made the Shanghai finale, he may still be winding himself up for peak fitness in November.

While it is hard to bet against Federer, this will be an intense tournament as it is almost at the stage of "now or never" for many of the top ten seeds. Federer may find himself in several tough games before making the final. It would not be a personal disaster if he was beaten however much he wishes to take yet another trophy home.

One approach may be to use the betting exchanges to bet on Blake to make the semi-finals. He is seeded to meet Nalbandian in the quarters but form may get him through that to face Federer in the semis. At the semi-final stage (or quarters for a smaller return), the bet can be cashed in. All told, 25/1 looks very big.

Ed note: Get a free £25 bet at Blue Square Betting the home of great sports prices.

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