APT Tennis: Last Chance Saloon in Paris for Seven Players

After a long season on the ATP tennis tour, it has come down to this! Eight players in all will play in the big money ATP Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai in two weeks' time. So far, five men are assured of their place, and three places remain! No less than seven players could fill those three berths and what better chance to do so than by gaining valuable ranking points at the final Masters Series event of the season?

It is Paris in France to where the weary tennis troops have marched. Here, at the BNP Paribas Masters, they will once again unzip racquets from covers and thrash tennis balls at unlikely angles in the hope of progressing to the later stages. Unlike the routine International Series where each event's points are compared to a player's previous best five matches in the International Series, the points on offer at a Masters Series event such as Paris are available in gross terms. What you score is what you get!

So the importance couldn't be more vital for the seven players yet to confirm their Shanghai places.

The seven are (including ATP ranking position and points):

6. David Nalbandian 439
7. James Blake 411
8. Tommy Robredo 410
9. Fernando Gonzalez 402
10. Mario Ancic 387
12. Tommy Haas 333
13. Tomas Berdych 316

Note the missing number 11. That is Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis who is injured and will not play in Paris, therefore eliminating him from the top 8 reckoning, marking an unfortunate end to an excellent season that started so well at the Australian Open.

The five that have already qualified are:

1. Roger Federer 1,524
2. Rafael Nadal 854
3. Ivan Ljubicic 479
4. Andy Roddick 463
5. Nikolay Davydenko 445

One glance at this demonstrates how complete Roger Federer's dominance of the tennis circuit is just now!

Of those still to qualify, Tomas Berdych and Tommy Haas have to win in Paris to stand a hope of qualifying for Shanghai. There are 100 points available to the winner and they need other players to fall early.

Ancic and Gonzalez are seeded for a third round meeting and this will decide the fate of one or the other. Similarly, Blake and Haas are seeded to meet at that level, but Haas has no option but to proceed to the winner's rostrum even if he beats Blake.

For many of these hopefuls, the necessary progress would have seemed unlikely with the prospect of overcoming Federer and the other top seeds to achieve their aims. This has now been made somewhat easier since Federer, Nadal, Ljubicic and Roddick, the top four already qualified for Shanghai, have all pulled out at the eleventh hour, citing either injury or fatigue!

So, now Berdych, who must win to have a hope of making the top 8 is now listed as joint favourite at 10/1. The drawback of course is that his main rivals also have an easier path to the points.

Possibly the most in form player is Fernando Gonzalez who needs one more decent performance to qualify for Shanghai. He too is quoted at 10/1 with VC Bet. This is a big change from having a long odds-on favourite in Federer.

So, in terms of the tournament itself, ignoring the race for Shanghai, the odds on offer for an outright win - which are very tight at the top - are (at the time of writing, as more bookies are posting their own odds up):

Tomas Berdych 10/1
Fernando Gonzalez 10/1
James Blake 10/1
Nikolay Davydenko 11/1
Marat Safin 11/1
Richard Gasquet 13/1
Mario Ancic 13/1
Novak Djokovic 14/1
Andrew Murray 16/1
25/1 Bar

British interest is with Andrew Murray in what must rank as a rare chance for him to progress to the final in one of this year's biggest ATP Masters events. At 16/1, the value looks reasonable, assuming he has his fitness in order, but he is seeded to meet Tomas Berdych at the quarter final stage.

Ed note: A wide variety of tennis match bets are available at VC Bet where a free £20 bet can be yours

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